Think more sharply about finance and performance.
Short professional perspectives on the issues that often determine the quality of financial decisions. Open only the topic that is relevant to you.
Insight you can use.
These perspectives are general and do not replace advice on a specific situation. They are intended as a stronger starting point for the conversation.
Why forecasts often miss — even with good data
A forecast rarely fails because of missing data alone. It fails when assumptions are hidden, history is projected without understanding the drivers, or the forecast is not linked to action.
1. Make assumptions visible
Separate facts from expectations. Show clearly which assumptions about volume, price, staffing and activity explain the change.
2. Forecast from drivers
A projection shows what happens if everything continues. A driver-based forecast shows what changes the trajectory.
3. Link the variance to a decision
A forecast creates management value when it triggers a choice: should capacity, priorities or resource use change?
When KPIs measure activity, but not progress
Many reports are full of metrics but poor in decision support. A relevant KPI should make it clearer whether the organisation is moving towards its objective — and what should happen next.
Start with the decision
First ask which decision the metric is meant to support. If the number cannot change a priority or action, it is probably information rather than management control.
Distinguish activity from impact
The number of meetings, cases or analyses measures activity. Time, quality, financial performance and realised benefits come closer to measuring impact.
Keep the number limited
A small set of metrics with clear ownership often drives more action than a large dashboard without priorities.
The hidden drivers behind rising costs
Price and volume are a natural place to start, but they do not always explain the full cost development. The remainder often lies in mix, complexity, capacity utilisation and small behavioural changes over time.
Examine the mix
Two periods can have the same activity but different economics if task types, products or customers have different resource intensity.
Examine capacity
Spare capacity, overtime and bottlenecks can exist at the same time. Capacity therefore needs to be assessed close to the specific process.
Find the controllable driver
A strong cost analysis does not end with the explanation. It shows which drivers management can actually change — and the consequence of doing so.