Three worked demonstrations

Three decisions you can calculate.

Change the assumptions and see how a financial question becomes a clear decision. The models cover cash flow, pricing and the choice between hiring and flexible capacity.

Fictional demonstrations. All companies, figures and situations are constructed. Results are calculations under the stated assumptions, not realised client outcomes.
01 · Cash flow and working capital

Profit is positive. Why is cash running low?

The fictional company invoices DKK 12m annually and starts with DKK 350,000 in cash. Customers pay after 50 days on average. In the illustrative 13-week plan, normal receipts are DKK 230,000 per week, payments DKK 250,000 and an extra DKK 150,000 payment falls in week 8.

Test collection timing

Explore faster customer payments and different weekly payments.

Assumptions

Opening cash DKK 350,000; normal receipts DKK 230,000 per week; extra DKK 150,000 payment in week 8. Only customer payment timing changes.

13-WEEK CASH FLOWFICTIONAL DATA
Week 13 without changeDKK -60,000current payment pattern
Potential cash releaseDKK 493,151one-time effect, not profit
Week 13 with changeDKK 433,151release included in week 6

Cash balance by week

Swipe the chart to see all weeks.
No changeFaster payment
Collection days, before → after50 → 35 days
Lowest cash with actionDKK 250,000
Provisional decision

The modelled collection improvement closes the 13-week gap. Verify invoice age and payment dates before acting.

Cash is released only if payments actually arrive earlier. This is a one-time timing shift and does not increase contribution. A real forecast needs actual due dates, tax, payroll and other payments.
The real problem

Can the company meet its obligations at the low point of the cash curve?

Underlying drivers

Payment terms, invoice age and actual payment dates.

Next test

Agree earlier payment with a selected customer group and measure the result.

02 · Price and contribution

Can prices rise without reducing contribution?

A fictional service has 1,000 annual orders, a DKK 1,000 price and DKK 600 of variable cost per order. The client wants to know how far order volume can fall before a price rise makes the business worse off.

Test price and volume

Change the price increase and expected loss of orders.

Assumptions

Variable costs are DKK 600 per order and assumed unchanged. Other costs and competitor responses are outside this simple model.

PRICE SCENARIO · CONTRIBUTIONFICTIONAL DATA
Before changeDKK 400,0001,000 orders × DKK 400
Selected assumptionsDKK 414,000price × remaining orders
Difference+DKK 14,000change in contribution

Contribution before and after

BeforeDKK 400,000
AfterDKK 414,000
New price per orderDKK 1,050
Expected orders920
Maximum tolerable volume loss11.1 %

Sensitivity to three volume losses

Volume lossContributionVersus before
3 %DKK 436,500+DKK 36,500
8 %DKK 414,000+DKK 14,000
13 %DKK 391,500DKK -8,500
Provisional decision

The tested price and volume combination raises contribution. Pilot it in one segment and measure actual orders and churn.

The threshold shows where contribution is unchanged under these assumptions. It does not predict how customers will actually respond.
The real problem

Which price produces the strongest total contribution?

Underlying drivers

Price per order, variable costs and actual customer demand.

Next test

Pilot the price in part of the market and track both volume and contribution.

03 · Hiring and capacity choices

Hire or buy capacity flexibly?

A fictional company expects 1,200 additional billable hours. Each hour contributes DKK 750 before the cost of new delivery capacity. An employee costs DKK 750,000 per year in total; a freelancer charges DKK 650 per hour.

Test demand

Compare two ways to deliver the same number of hours.

Assumptions

Contribution before delivery: DKK 750 per hour. Both options can deliver all selected hours. Onboarding, quality, absence and contract terms require separate assessment.

CAPACITY · TWO OPTIONSFICTIONAL DATA
Contribution with hireDKK 150,000hours × DKK 750 minus annual cost
Contribution with freelancerDKK 120,000hours × (DKK 750 minus fee)
Hire minus flexible+DKK 30,000positive favours hiring
Hire break-even versus no delivery1,000 hours
Hire equals freelancer1,154 hours

If demand differs

HoursHireFreelancer
800DKK -150,000DKK 80,000
1,000DKK 0DKK 100,000
1,200DKK 150,000DKK 120,000
Provisional decision

Hiring gives the higher modelled contribution. Confirm the sales pipeline, onboarding time and achievable billable hours first.

A higher modelled contribution is not the only factor. Also assess idle time, quality, delivery capability and cash needs during onboarding.
The real problem

Is demand stable enough to carry a fixed cost?

Underlying drivers

Achievable hours, contribution per hour and the cost of each delivery option.

Next test

Qualify the order pipeline and set a threshold for hiring.

First Principles

Want to test a decision with your own data?

A real analysis starts with your figures, data quality and the decision at hand. These models illustrate the approach and do not promise a particular outcome.